The Mobridge

Newt

2011-12-12T07:18:00.000-08:00

The first decade of the 21^st century has been challenging to say the least. In the past few years, since the beginning of the Great Recession, we have been hit with challenges that we thought we would never see on the financial and economic front. We thought we were better than that. But here we are.

I have been closely watching the economy over the past few years. This has been amplified by pursuit of my MBA where the economic and finance courses could not have been more closely aligned to the activities of the Federal Reserve as well as our national and international economies.

The country is still beat down and the economy is weak. Has the government done everything it can do to help the economy? I would say “almost.” More importantly, I think that there is going to be a better impact on the economy by a change in our tax structure, government spending, and business involvement if we focus on changing our Fiscal Policy. The current Monetary Policy, as implemented by the Fed, has provided the most benefit it can provide and there is not much more it can do.

So our focus should be on Fiscal Policy changes and in order to change our tax structure, trim government spending, and further encourage business involvement (i.e. starting a new business, hiring workers, etc.), who is the best person to have in the Oval Office to make that change happen?

After a lot of introspect, I believe that President Obama has done a good job on the mechanics of the economy, but the there is not much more that he can do and more still needs to be done. He has focused mainly on Monetary Policies but not enough on Fiscal Policies.

Although most of the Republican candidates do not seem to have the balance, temperament, or experience needed to be president and change Fiscal Policy, I believe there is a candidate that has the ability to do better with the economy than President Obama. I believe Newt has the ability to be a good president and can work with Congress to make the necessary changes and more expeditiously revive our economy.

I think that there is never a perfect choice for president. But, I believe that in this case, Newt is the best choice and that is the choice I am making.

Klink! You Idiot!

2011-08-08T15:37:00.001-07:00

It has been a little over a week since our illustrious leaders in Washington agreed upon a deficit and debt reduction package.

Like a poor dart player, not only did they miss the target, but the dart never even made it to the wall. It fell to the floor. Now the world is responding and today the American People felt the wrath of the world and investment community as a result of the inaction of our leaders in Washington.

I would like to be able to point to a single person, party, or house of congress that was the root cause of the problem... but I cannot. It clearly took a concerted effort of our elected officials in the House and Senate to royally hose the economy. I will not criticize the President (this time) because the buffoonery of Congressional leaders far, far exceeded any errors made by the President.

From a political perspective, each of the members of congress might as well were a T-shirt that says "please kick me out of office" because any new candidate running against them who can fog a mirror just has to say "the incumbent is to blame for this mess." And it will be the truth.

No member of congress has a remotely acceptable excuse (except for Gabby Gifford) for the mess they made of the economy. They can stand in their respective corners and use their myopic, bony fingers and point to somebody else and say it is "their" fault, but the fact is that they are the ones in congress and they need to move this country forward and make the tough decisions.

If Congress would have passed a package that exceeded the recommended target of $4T, they would have had a little political debt to pay. Now, that the country is headed to second recession (thanks to them), they will very likely be the target of another "shellacking" that will will make the 2010 election season seem like a practice round.

I have a pulse and can fog a mirror.... perhaps I should run for office.

85%-15%

2011-07-12T09:00:00.000-07:00

What Debt Ceiling?
So we are coming down to the wire on this debt ceiling issue. For those who have been living in a cave, let me summarize it. The use "credit card" is maxed-out and if we want to increase our "line of credit" then the US Congress (House) needs to approve the increase. If we don't get an increase in our line of credit, we cannot spend any more (and that includes paying much of the bill that the US has for social security, medicare, VA benefits, etc.).

If we don't pay our bills, then the US won't be considered good for the credit and people (such as bond holders like you and I) will demand a higher interest rate (if we buy the bonds at all) to offset the risk that the US will not pay them. Just like with a credit card - if you don't pay your credit card then one of the first things the Visa will do is increase your interest rate (and slap you with some additional charges). The US credit card works the same way.

Debt and Deficit
The core issue is not the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling (or its approval for being increased), is being leveraged by Congress to force consensus on lowering our national debt and deficit. (Note that I could also rant about McConnel's lame idea for ensuring that somebody will be blamed for increasing the debt ceiling if Congress does not get a financial plan together).

It makes proper sense to say that the reason we have maxed out the credit card is because we have spent too much and not paid down the card quickly enough. In other words, we have been using our credit card to spend faster than we can pay it down. Hmmm.... what should we do (that is a rhetorical question for those in the slow lane).

Basically, you have two fundamental tools at your disposal: spend less and pay off more. In other words, you can reduce spending and increase tax revenues (note that there is an AND in that sentence).

Historically speaking, this country and addressed budgetary problems by reducing debt and increasing revenues. If we need to come up with an amount to reduce our debt (say $4T), then historically we have made that goal by coming up with 85% through spending cuts and 15% through tax revenue increases. The Economist is a good reference for this information.

Time for Action - it is a simple task
I have always been a conservative - especially a fiscal conservative (you know that) and it is time to take action. We need to go after the fat cats of expenditures (medicare, medicaid, and social security) by freezing increases in entitlements in those programs. If recipients want an increase have them identify and see-through the cuts in waste in the system. Remember that the administrators (bureaucrats) who oversee these programs do not want you to reduce their budget for whatever reason (the bigger the budget the bigger the career).

In addition to changes in entitlements, we need to close loopholes in our tax code. Yes, Virginia, this means that somebody is going to pay more taxes (this isn't rocket science). However, if we can seriously cut our debt ($4T) and get control of our major government expenditures (medicare, medicaid, and social security are the biggest), then I am willing to support changes in our tax code so that will both clean it up and generate more revenue.

As for the Republicans in Congress, I am a Republican, my family history are Republicans, but when it comes to reducing the size of government, working for the betterment of the country, and reducing the debt and deficit, you are you not acting like a Republican. Even Ronald Reagan raised taxes when he needed to do so.

Tax Spend Spend Tax

2010-09-12T07:13:00.000-07:00

Nothing like a little education to get your mind revisiting or more clearly assessing the matters of the world.

This fall, I am taking a macro economics course from Professor Rich Wobbekind. In the early stages of the course, he described how the US (and the world) have developed tools and metrics to manage national and international economies.

Without going into great detail, and without addressing the politics (since economic recommendations are not always popular), he is confirming the obvious: our government is spending too much. Naturally, this gets you into the vicious cycle of needing to tax more and that gets you into the tar pit of determining who to tax and who to tax more. Clearly the rich are a obvious target.

However, in the grand scheme of things, government is nothing more than a manure spreader. It just redistributes money... it does not do anything to allow its citizens or business to make any more money (or any more stuff) unless it reduces taxes.

So, I am becoming even more firmly committed that reducing government spending, and reducing taxes is the key to our economic prosperity (a.k.a. job growth). It is that simple.

With regard to the question of "who" to tax, I am going out on the limb and say everybody should pay taxes,. That means if you are making $1000 a year or $1B a year, you pay taxes. I am more in favor of a national sales tax than an income or property tax because it would encourage savings (which is what we want) and tax people across the board. I know a national sales tax is unlikely to appear in my lifetime, but we need to have "everybody" contribute to the tax base, not just the rich.

Regarding spending, my simple take on this is that we need to reduce social security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Do it over 10 years or 50 years .... I don't care. We just need to do it. I am not expecting anything to come to me from those programs, anyway. The sooner we reduce them, the sooner the corruption and abuse of those systems (particularly Medicare and Medicaid) will end.

The 2010 Budget Chart for Revenues and Expenditures says it all. We are spending way too much on Interest, Medicare, and Medicaid.... and we are being taxed way to much for what we are receiving.

Keep in mind that the economy is slow, but is on the mend. It is limping along, but it is at least moving and accelerating (albeit slowly).

To accelerate our economy more rapidly we need to reduce the uncertainty caused by the possibility of more taxes. Let's reduce government spending (say, by 50%) and let's reduce and rebalance our tax base (so everybody pays).

Paul Ryan (Congressman from Wisconsin) may have it right.

Drinking To Success

2009-01-31T20:16:00.000-08:00

In all of the reading which I do (usually as a cure to insomnia), I seem to inexplicably come across pearls of science, business, or even religion/wisdom which make a comment about the rather simple life I lead (at least as I would like to view it).

For example, Forbes recently released an article on Drinking to Success wherein people who drink modestly achieve a 10% higher income than those who don't drink. They have appropriately titled this the "drinker's bonus."

It was a scientific study. It was in Forbes. Amen. Look, a trifecta!

44

2009-01-20T19:51:00.000-08:00

Worn out dogmas and petty rhetoric.

During the Inaugural Address by #44 today, we were asked to proclaim and end to these petty practices.

In the room where I heard the faint sound of a woman deeply crying with happiness during the oath and address, I also heard the comments which were nothing more than the worn out dogma and petty rhetoric for which our new President has asked us to end.

The truly sad part is that the rhetoric was about the outgoing President and coming from an educated and outspoken supporter of the new President.

I was disappointed that my educated peers feel as through the goals and proclamations of our new President apply to only a select few, but not themselves.

The outgoing President, #43, like him or not, was a President, took the same oath, faced the same challenges, carried the same burdens, and frankly deserves the same respect.

We cannot re-write or discard history, like corrupt governments of other nations. We have always been bigger and better than that. We cannot "hate" our Presidential candidates or past-Presidents because of what they believe in.

We must look at these people who have committed their lives for moving forward this nation and must find strength in their leadership even though we may disagree with their direction. A direction which may not be the the same as one which we hoped, but still a direction which at its core, is intended to move America forward.

If we use exception as our rule and believe that leadership and guidance from #44 is only for the others in the room, we have a lot to learn from our new leader.

Considering Ted for Montana citizenship

2008-12-29T18:36:00.000-08:00

I have been thinking about this for a while. Being from the Big Sky State, there is clearly a high threshold I require for claiming to be "from" there. First, a birth certificate is not sufficient. Second, residence is not sufficient either. A myriad of transient residents are just that - residents. And many "locals" don't qualify in my book, either.

It takes loss, hardship, endurance, and selflessness. It also takes a pioneering spirit to pursue what you believe in in lieu of what you have.

Ted was not from MT when he moved there. He arrived there with a lot of cash. He took a ranch out of mainstream use. He had a wife who demanded the stature, but did not have the genuine fortitude to earn the respect of people.

Now, where is Ted? He has lost a lot. He has stood behind his ranch and brought, for the good or bad, a little more international interest in the Great State. He lost is wife. Not only did that align him with other Montana citizens, but it probably earned him a lot of respect for not chasing after her. So he is worth less, follows what he believes in, and does not live there for what that state brings to him. He just lives there. Even during most winters.

A guess that means he has the table stakes to earn the consideration.

Irish Coffee

2008-12-29T18:19:00.001-08:00

During a recent trip to SF, I stopped into a bar for a beverage - Irish Coffee. Yet more proof that a drink is more than it parts. The analytical side of me wanted to know more about the formula and process for making this elixir. It is not just the basic elements. Clearly there is a style involved:

BV: Irish Coffee in the Making

BV: Irish Coffee in the Making - Take 2

MT or CA, toss 3-4 of these in your gullet and the cold dampness of winter is not so bothersome.

Surviving Thanksgiving

2008-11-28T05:31:00.001-08:00

Surviving multiple Thanksgivings. The liver is about to implode. However, this loss is offset by the fun and joy of seeing friends and family.

Hi-Line Goals Achieved

2008-11-12T12:23:00.000-08:00

Made it to the Capital of the Hi-Line.

Completed all important goals: obtained venison , drank a lot, ate a lot, drove a lot, become one with nature (and a Winchester), and found a way to write it off.

Hi-Line Pending

2008-10-23T19:03:00.001-07:00

Heading to the hi-line in early November. Hunting, per se. The Chipster won't make it, but Mr. Doug appears as though he will.

My liver hurts already. Perhaps I should carry an extra one for the trip.

I forsee The Mint on the horizon.

Follower

2008-10-22T19:19:00.001-07:00

A new follower has made themself known.

Driving

2008-10-22T09:55:00.000-07:00

Headed to the hi-line soon. Crossing the bridge. Looking forward to the scenery and change of pace.

From the start

2008-10-21T20:33:00.001-07:00

Delving into a blog. Getting my feet wet, per se.